The debate over the estate of Dominique Strauss-Kahn to head the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has launched since Tuesday. There "is no longer able to lead the IMF," said Tuesday night, Timothy Geithner, the Secretary of State U.S. Treasury, before calling for a quick change at the head of the institution. Same story in France: "The question of succession will be resolved in the coming days," he said Wednesday Jean-Francois Cope, head of the UMP.
Must still agree on the name of a replacement.The departure of Dominique Strauss-Kahn is there an opportunity to put an end to more than 70 years of EU presidency IMF? Emerging countries hope to take this opportunity to promote one of their favorites, the South African Trevor Manuel and the Turkish Kemal Dervis.
For their part, Europeans want to perpetuate an unwritten rule in effect since 1944 that the IMF management amounts to one of their own and the presidency of the World Bank falls to an American.
But for several years, emerging countries reiterate that the world is not bipolar like in the 70s and should be taken into account.It is this new balance of power that Dominique Strauss-Kahn has also tried to reflect through the reform in 2008, voting rights at the IMF.
"Emerging markets now have more voice in the institution and therefore more weight on the designation of the future CEO", said FRANCE 24 Nicolas Dromel, associate researcher at Paris School of Economics.
"Earthquake with multiple aftershocks
In this, Europe contends that the timing is wrong."The first record of the future will be the crisis manager in the euro area and the Europeans believe that one of them will be more sensitive to this problem and better equipped to manage it," says Christine Rifflart, an economist at the French Observatory of conjunctures economic (OFCE), FRANCE 24."A European as Dominique Strauss-Kahn will have the necessary relationships to facilitate future agreements, including Greece and Ireland," adds Robert Wade, an expert on international organizations at the London School of Economics, FRANCE 24.
But beyond the European battlefield, the arrival of a representative of an emerging nation it change something for the operation of the IMF? "Dominique Strauss-Kahn has already done much to meet the demands of emerging economies such as to make the institution less dogmatic in his political allocation of loans," recalls Christine Rifflart. "The IMF has also put in place adequate filters to prevent the arrival of a president too heterodox," she adds.Moreover, "all candidates have been educated in the same high school and are awarded by the IMF," says Nicolas Dromel.
Still, the arrival of an emerging economy to head the IMF would be a powerful symbol and could act as "an earthquake with many aftershocks," says Robert Wade. "Once the barrier of the IMF will sell, there will be no reason to prevent leaders from emerging countries to take the lead of other international financial institutions", says British economist. Pre-square American Bank would he in turn threatened? In theory yes, but nothing is done."The United States has pushed for emerging countries take a greater role within the IMF and in return, they could thank them by giving them the leadership of the World Bank," said Robert Wade.
